The first of the opinion polls is upon us, this time initiated by the Malayala Manorama Group’s The Week magazine. ‘Modi wins, lotus wilts!’ reads the screaming headline that prides itself on bringing the results of an exclusive Gujarat election survey. The kicker headline goes on to say that the CM is popular, but BJP faces a resurgent Congress. Can there be a more balanced story than this one? Consider for a moment that this story is manufactured, then who would tend to benefit from this? The Congress and Narendra Modi, ofcourse. Now consider that the story is sponsored by the Congress, why couldn’t they have said, ‘Modi loses, lotus wilts!’? Because everyone knows that though the popularity of Modi is on the wane, he is yet to find a competitor. So in the interest of some credibility, it was important for the survey to be semi-credible. After all, Modi’s winning margin might come down from his last victory (there is no Godhra this time around), but his utterances are continuing to make national headlines. If there is one publicity machinery that is working overtime, it’s the Modi camp. For them, any kind of publicity is good publicity. In fact, the more extreme reactions that Modi elicits, the better it gets for him. That has been his way to polarise voter opinion.
A similar story will emerge when any of our Kannada and English newspapers and TV channels undertake an opinion poll in Karnataka. Everyone who is in the know will tell you that these surveys tend to benefit the politicians more than citizens like us. In fact, they end up causing more angst and in some cases, utter confusion amongst voters. But what everyone knows is that most of these surveys are unscientific, sometimes manufactured and therefore never accurate. So how do they justify their ineptness? By saying that the voters changed their mind at the last minute. It could be true in some segments where liquor and money do turn around fortunes of many parties, but I would still blame the surveys for this. Noticing that their popularity has dipped, courtesy the opinion poll, a certain political party might pitch in with more money, resort to large-scale rigging and subvert the electoral process. This is particularly true in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Which is why, it’s in the best interest to ban opinion polls. Is the Election Commission listening?
But until that happens, expect to be reading a lot many opinion polls in the days to come. In addition to Outlook and India Today, you might have Deccan Herald, The Times of India and even The Hindu coming out with divergent findings on which party would win the state elections this time round. With TV9’s propensity towards the Congress, don’t be surprised if their opinion poll favours the Congress. Don’t be surprised if Zee Kannada favours the BJP. Similarly, among print publications, Deccan Herald’s findings could favour the BJP while the Times of India could very well pitch for the Congress. That’s where their respective ideologies lie. But I could be wrong. Political equations can change at the last minute, and thereby their stands. Opportunism makes politics highly unpredictable. But what is clear is the need for a stable government, both at the centre and the state. Happiness doesn’t reside in a country that is forever under a cloud of political uncertainty. Are you ready to cast your vote?
(This piece has appeared in my Media Watch column that runs in Agni every week)